By Charles E. Roop
Image Source: NOAA
Tropical Storm Bertha is still out in the open Atlantic and has changed. Not the storm itself, but the forecast track. Since my first update on July 3, the forecast models have moved the storm more west and not making any curves until later. Right now, Bertha and its 50 mph winds are quickly moving west at 21 mph according to the National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. EDT advisory.
The NHC is noticing a flareup in convection looking at visible satellite imagery according to the latest discussion (and I have noticed it on infrared). Also, with water temps warm and with wind shear to remain low for the next two days, gradual intensification is possible. It is possible that Bertha will become a hurricane within two days.
The NHC is expecting the ridge to weaken in about 2 to 3 days; therefore, the storm might start to turn more northwest in time. However, the models predicted this to happen by now. Right now, it’s a wait-and-see thing.
More later.
WEATHER UPDATE (1:43 PM EDT): SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL ALACHUA COUNTY…GAINESVILLE AND GAINESVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT IN PATH. WARNING UNTILL 2:45 PM EDT.
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